Bitcoin, Nuclear War, and the Mexican Peso: Evaluating the Unprecedented

We live in turbulent times. Many of the risks we are contemplating —from the AI apocalypse to an all-out trade war between China and the United States— are without precedent. With little or no historical data to guide us, how can we evaluate these types of risks? In this paper, we examine how Bayesian analysis can be used to assess unprecedented risks, along with some examples.

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